The standing order of the Federal Government on deactivation of over 70 million Subscriber Identification Module (SIM) lines not linked with National Identification Numbers (NIN) is fast taking a huge toll on telecom operators’ revenue base, even as many subscribers continue to groan over their inability to make calls.
Investigation by Daily Independent, using the current monthly Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) of N2, 500 for half of a month (15 days), revealed that about N43 billion may have been lost in the last two weeks by telcos due to the inability of millions of subscribers to make calls.
Multiplying the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) of telecommunication services by the total number of affected subscribers, an estimate of N43 billion in losses was arrived at, using a 15 days period.
ARPU is the total revenue divided by the number of subscribers of telecom operators per month. Nigeria’s ARPU stands at $4.14 (about N2,500).
Last year, Zamfara State, which probably had between five and six million active telecom users, is one of the states, where telcos lost about N6 billion due to two weeks communication black out ordered by the Federal Government.
The Federal Government through the Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy had directed the operators to bar outgoing calls on all unlinked SIM cards in the country.
President Muhammadu Buhari, in December 2020, had ordered all phone lines to be linked to an identification number.
The reason given by the government for the drastic action is to curb rising incidents of abductions and stem all criminal activities in the country.
POLL
During the disclosure of their financial statements this year, MTN Nigeria Communications Plc and Airtel Nigeria both raked in N2.02 trillion from airtime and data revenue in 2021.
The amount indicated a 20.01 percent increase from the N1.68 trillion both companies made from airtime and data revenue in 2020.
The amount 9mobile and Globacom made from data and airtime revenue could not be obtained as their financial statements were not made public.
Industry stakeholders are of the belief that if the Federal Government holds to its stance of not unbarring the deactivated lines, the telcos will feel the financial heat, as many of their respective customers will not need to patronise them by buying airtime and making calls.
According to statistics from the Nigerian Communications Commission, MTN and Airtel are the two major call carriers in the nation. In its industry statistics report for 2020, a total 150,825,830,687.40 minutes of calls were made.
Of this number, a total of 145,420,101,695 calls (96.42 percent) were made from MTN lines (103,531,547,686 minutes), while the remaining (41,888,554,009 minutes) were made on Airtel network.
In 2021, MTN made N819.74 billion and N516.21 billion from airtime and data, respectively; in 2020, it made N766.39 billion and N332.37 billion from airtime and data, respectively.
In 2021, Airtel made N397.91 billion and N287.31 billion from airtime and data, respectively; in 2020, it made N370.47 billion and N214.96 billion from airtime and data, respectively.
Several bodies such as the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), civil societies, professional bodies and a host of others had appealed to the Federal Government for the extension of the deadlines in the past.
In view of anticipated socio- economic inconveniences that subscribers would be subjected to, the Federal Government approved the many requests to extend deadlines for the initiative.
The National Association of Telecommunication Subscribers’ (NATCOMS) president, Deolu Ogunbanjo, said the SIMNIN linkage policy will in a way help the telecom system to track criminals.
“The 72 million lines not allowed to make calls is quite disheartening, because many businesses will suffer and will cause psychological inconvenience to families and friends.
“Our appeal is that the government should reconnect the deactivated lines and give subscribers a three months window of opportunity in which they can link their SIMs with NINs so that the subscribers and the operators will not lose much”, he said.
Dr. Martins Iwuanyanwu, founder/Chief Executive Officer, Leadership Watch (LW) and Emerging Leaders Network (El-net Club), said the action of the government seems commendable, but noted that telecom operators will suffer for it financially.
In the midst of the SIM-NIN linkage impasse, operators are still confused as to how this should play out.
There are those with SIMs but have yet to verify their NINs (though very few). Secondly, there are those with linked SIMs that have not been verified because of the challenge of backend integration from NIMC.
Some of the telecom operators have sent many linked SIMs to NIMC, but they have not been verified yet because of some teething problems, which have continued to persist.
It would be recalled that the deadline handed to Nigerians to link their NIN to their SIMs ended on March 31, after it had been postponed about eight times.
In a last-minute push for the linkage, the Federal Governement had recently directed Nigerians to ensure they complete the verification and linkage of their NINs to their SIMs within days.
But a statement signed by the Director of Public Affairs, NCC, Dr. Ike Adinde and Head, Corporate Communications, NIMC, Kayode Adegoke, noted that Pantami commended Nigerians and legal residents for their support during the NIN-SIM exercise, which lasted for one year and four months, before ordering that outbound calls on all unlinked SIMs should be blocked with effect from Monday, April 4.
The operators to bear the revenue loss are MTN Nigerian which is the largest operator with 75 million subscribers, giving it a market share of about 38 percent. Other major operators include Airtel, Globacom and 9mobile.
However, with the disruption occasioned by the disconnection order by the Federal Government, the tel cos may witness unsavoury revenue outcomes during this year’s financial report, unless the SIM-NIN linkage process is fast-tracked.
