“Politics means striving to share power or striving to influence the distribution of power, either among states or among groups within a state”
—Max Weber

Never in the history of Nigeria has an event presented us with an enormous opportunity like the 2023 presidential election. It’s a once in a lifetime chance for Nigeria to revive as a great nation or consign herself to the dark side of history. Also, the 2023 presidential election presents the South-South, also tagged Niger Delta, with the tools in form of ballots and votes to pitch tent with social justice or relegate itself to the Stockholm syndrome. In 2023, it’s incumbent on the geopolitical to insist on equity, social justice and shared power principles in view of the prevailing pragmatism of the Nigerian presidency. The South-South has to choose between supporting the South-East or genuflecting to the born to rule mentality or cynically align with Emi L’okan mentality.

For too long, the South-East has been a dejected and hapless region among other supposedly equal partners within the Nigerian nation-state. In all, the South-South and South-East are brothers, nearly 40% of the South-South population is Igbo. From Rivers, Delta, Edo, Cross River and even Akwa Ibom State, there are traces of Igbo everywhere. Only those who lacked history will doubt this proven truth. Strategically, the Igbo have looked to their brothers across the Niger for a rescue from servitude and marginalisation. Note that the only Igbo on the ballot is Peter Obi and his presidential run does not only need South-South but the rest of the country. But for this conversation, it is to hedge the discourse, charging the South-South for an Obi support. The Igbo have supported us so well in various ramifications. During the former President Goodluck Jonathan’s reign, they stood by us even when other tribal gangs conspired against that government. They may have their problems, just like Chinua Achebe pointed out in There Was Country: A Personal History of Biafra (see page 76). We all have our human foibles as part of the DNA of every existential homo sapiens. But the continued relegation of the Igbo of South-East extraction is also an indictment on us all, Niger-Deltans. It is on that note that Obi’s presidential ambition should be a source of concern to all of us in view of consolidating our democracy.

Since the return of democracy in 1999, the presidency has gone to nearly all the geopolitical zones except the South-East, North-East, North-Central. The vice presidency has gone round except the South-East and North-Central. The South-West had the presidency in then President Olusegun Obasanjo era, 1999 – 2007; vice presidency in Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, 2015 – 2023; South-South Jonathan’s presidency, 2010 – 2015; Jonathan’s vice presidency, 2007 – 2010; North-West vice presidency in Namadi Sambo, 2010 – 2015; North-West retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari’s  presidency, 2015 – 2023; North-East vice presidency in Atiku Abubakar, 1999 – 2007. In all, the South-East has been completely left out. Granted, the North-Central faced the same relegation, but the North-Central spent nearly 20 years as president of the country during the years of Yakubu Gowon; Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar, of which no geopolitical zone has enjoyed such presidential power. Thus, Caroline A. Hartzell and Matthew Hoddie in their book, Power Sharing and Democracy in Post-Civil War States: The Art of the Possible, argued that participation, inclusiveness and stability are the three most strategic components to assuage the feeling of disillusionment in states where conflict on power distribution is well entrenched. So, the Peoples Democratic Party’s decision to jettisoned its constitutional provision on zoning by failing to squarely zone its 2023 presidential ticket to the South-East is an aberration within the principles of shared power

Thus, there have been deliberate efforts to undermine the South-East politically. Not only that, in 2014, Atiku led other stewards to form nPDP and undermined the PDP and Jonathan’s government, a son of the Niger-Delta. Atiku and his henchmen connived with the opposition All Progressives Congress to ensure Jonathan was booted out of office, replacing that administration with the most quintessentially clueless government in Nigeria’s history. By 2017, Atiku and his men returned back to PDP and the presidential ticket was handed over to him. After the presidential poll, he never waited to contest the outcome of the election in court, he jetted out to his ostentatious palatial mansions in Dubai, United Arab Emirates and waited until 2021, returning back to Nigeria, where all manners of subterfuge were deployed to snatch the presidential ticket for Atiku, again. Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, who had all these years sustained the PDP, funded her and ensured that the party didn’t die was fought and betrayed by Atiku men. Just like the then Bauchi-born PDP National Chairman betrayed Jonathan; the Benue born PDP National Chairman, who was resurrected from political retirement, came back to stab Wike on the back. Where is the justice now? Why should the zones that have sustained the PDP be ditched and treated with disdain why those who don’t know how and why PDP has survived the APC onslaught remain in charge? Why can’t Atiku be a statesman and concede to the South-East?

To make matters worse, Delta State Governor, Dr Ifeanyi Okowa, the chief host of the Southern Governors Forum and the pathfinder of the 2023 Southern Presidency Agenda, had a different dream. In the day light, Okowa smiled with brother governors from the South, in the night, Okowa wielded the Shakespearean long knife, clad in Brutus regalia, and unleashed damages to the Southern presidency. At the end of Okowa’s nocturnal expedition, he was made a second fiddle, in which, after the exchange of night gifts, Okowa gave a salute to the feeding bottle democracy. The question, Jonathan, Chief Edwin Clark, Wike, Obong Victor Attah and other sons and daughters of South-South should ask ourselves: Does Okowa’s eerie vice presidential voyage represent our interest or his?

Critically, the 2023 presidential election is not about tribe and creed, it’s about rescuing Nigeria from sinking and extinguishing the flame engulfing her farther afield. Tribal gangs and bigots are doing all they can to reduce the presidential race to tribalism and bigotry, but the South-South leaders like Jonathan and Wike have a historical moment in their hands. For Jonathan, there can be no other historical trophy than him endorsing Obi for president in the coming months. For Wike, the PDP has already set snares, traps, owls and entrapment laying in-wait for him. But the Nigerian nation, generality of youths, adults and the Obi movement, are offering Wike a monumental trophy that will be timeless and unimpeachable. Critically, should Wike lend his support to the umbrella after the back-stabbing episodes, it will definitely be failing to learn from history, politically suicidal and even self-immolation.

Overall, on the scale of competence; probity, transparent and accountable public and private life, a clean slate with anti-graft agencies, capacity to govern—mentality and age wise, international exposure, acceptability and a pan-Nigerian credentials, Obi is far ahead of Atiku and Bola Tinubu. So, support for Obi is not lost, but will be historically judged as a defence of the republic.

In 2023, the greatest undoing that the South-South people will commit is to fail to support Obi’s presidential run. South-South leaders should lead a delegation across the country, to all the five geopolitical zones to plead with the South-West, North-East, North-West, North-Central and even South-East itself to support Obi’s ambition. We are all one, let’s reunite together and strengthen our unity with the 2023 presidential election. As a Boki man, from Cross River State, there is a debt, I and other South-South citizens owe the South-East in the 2023 presidential election, it’s based on collective social justice, a reciprocal favour, though not binding and mandatory, but it’s morally upright.

Obi , is a journalist and political communication researcher, writes from Abuja