In his reaction to the recent military coup in neighbouring Niger Republic, Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu who also doubles as the Chairman of the Authority of Heads of State and Governments of the Economic Community of West Africa States [ECOWAS], has written to the National Assembly seeking their leave to deploy troops across its northern borders in the Republic of Nigeria as part of regional efforts to restore the democratically elected government of Mohammed Bazoum.

Elected president of Niger Republic in April 2021, Mohammed Bazoum, a former government minister and leading establishment politician who succeeded Mamadou Isoufou was sacked by the country’s military authorities in July 2023. Ousted in an operation that was carried out by elements of the presidential guards led by its commander, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, President Bazoum has been detained by the new military junta in the Republic of Niger. General Tchiani has since emerged the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland and the effective ruler of the Republic of Niger.

In a sub-region that has witnessed a wave of military coup sweeping across it and making a land fall in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea Conakry and now Niger, the democratically elected regimes among the ECOWAS Heads of State and Government are understandably concerned about their own regime safety, considering the contagious nature of events in the contiguous states of West Africa. Four days after the July coup in Niger, leaders of the West Africa sub-region converged on Abuja, Nigeria’s capital city under the Chairmanship of President Tinubu , where they condemned the forceful overthrow of President  Bazoum and issued a 7 day ultimatum to the military authorities in Niamey to hand power back to him or face military action. As the military Junta remained defiant as the ECOWAS Heads of state and Governments ultimatum was coming to an end by Sunday August 6, President Tinubu took his first step towards leading Nigeria into an external for the first time in its 63 years as an independent country.

In a correspondence to the National Assembly, President Tinubu who has taken more than a passing  interest in the Niger affair wrote, “Following the unfortunate political situation in Niger Republic culminating in the overthrow of its President, ECOWAS under my leadership condemned the coup in its entirety and resolved to seek the return of the democratically elected government. In a bid to restore peace, ECOWAS convened a meeting and came out with a communiqué. Closure and monitoring of all land borders with Niger Republic and reactivating of the border drilling exercise.

“Cutting off Electricity supply to Niger Republic. Mobilizing international support for the implementation of the provisions of the ECOWAS communiqué. Preventing the operation of commercial and special flights into and from Niger Republic. Blockade of goods in transit to Niger especially from Lagos and eastern seaports embarking on sensitization of Nigerians and Nigerians on the imperative of these actions particularly via social media. Military build up and deployment of personnel for military intervention to enforce compliance of the military junta in Niger should they remain recalcitrant.”

President Tinubu’s contemplation of military intervention in Niger and the waging of energy war on Nigeria’s northern neighbour in indicative of his poor understanding of the dynamics of realist diplomacy within a multi-lateral environment that national economic and security interest of his country must be prioritized at all times and under all circumstances. The hurried approach of resorting to military means to restore democracy in Niger, clearly illustrates a clear lack of understanding of the happenings in Niamey in Abuja. And in his quest to champion the collective regime protection of his colleagues in the sub-region, President Tinubu has launched an economic and energy war with Nigeria’s longest standing security, economic and cultural ally in the ECOWAS bloc. 

On energy, an agreement with the Republic of Niger in 1963 made it possible for Nigeria to dam the lower end of the River Niger in Kainji to generate hydro-electric power as a dam on the upper part of the river on the Nigerien end would have made it impossible for Nigeria. It was on this basis that Nigeria supplies 70 per cent of the electricity needs of Niger from Kainji dam generated power. And this power supply is not on charity to Niger as it is paid for. On national security, the Republic of Niger has been Nigeria’s major ally in the war on Boko Haram terror group and cross border bandits. Following the re-organization of the Multi-national Joint Task Force in 2015 to include troops from Benin, Niger, Chad and Cameroun to help combat and contain the Boko Haram insurgency, the Nigerien contingent has manned sector 4 of the command with its headquarters in Diffa, from where it provides adequate cover for rear flanks of their Nigerian counterparts in major operations in the theatre of war against terror. The security and energy cooperation was made possible by deep rooted cultural economic ties between Nigeria’s Hausa speaking north and Niger’s Hausa speaking south, which has all but obliterated the modern borders of both countries. A wise leader would have prioritized these national security and economic interests of his country above any other interest as long as there are guarantees from the new rulers of Niger on continuous security, economic and energy cooperation with Nigeria. Therefore, a declaration of war on Niger by President Tinubu will be a declaration of war on Nigeria.

The latest coup in Niger is a clear indication that democracy is on the decline in West Africa and this is the reality President Tinubu and colleagues seem to living in denial off. The failure of democracy in West Africa is not as a result of the incursion of the military but because of the undemocratic conduct of the conductors of the sub-region’s democracy. The corruption, incompetence and ineptitude of the political class in West Africa constitutes the greatest to democracy in the sub-region as a result of the rise of undemocratic democracy that has failed to deliver dividends in the form of improved security and welfare for the people. Democracy in West Africa has become a government of a few, by the few and for the few privileged-to-be in government in the sub-region and the anti-dote to military incursion into governance is to democratise democracy and rid it of all embellishments of identity politics, corruption and public resources mismanagement. And this is why the military takeover in the Republic of Niger has massive support of the people concerned and the ruling junta enjoys more legitimacy than the ‘’democracy’’ it displaced.

Thankfully, the Nigerian parliament and people have rejected any contemplation of military intervention in the affairs of Niger. Apart from the fact that Nigeria will be going to war a divided country, Niger will be defending its territory with highest level of national unity in its entire history. Now is the time for President Tinubu and his colleagues in the West Africa to look themselves in the eyes and tell each other some home truths about why democracy is failing in the sub-region and take a collective decision to commit class suicide by replacing undemocratic democracy with democratic good governance for the benefit of their peoples. As the ECOWAS Heads of state and government converge on Abuja in the coming days to deliberate on their next line of action, they should thread with caution.