Malta’s foreign minister has warned about the danger of a “spark that will light a bonfire” in nearby Libya, as a new violent military conflict looms.

Malta was one of the key players in de-escalating a new violent military conflict in Tripoli this week, but the situation remains a “precarious and fragile unpeace”, with a possible confrontation breaking out any day, Evarist Bartolo told Times of Malta.

As the world focuses on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the situation in Libya has deteriorated with clashes between those supporting Fathi Bashagha’s Government of National Stability and Abdul Dbeibah’s Government of National Unity in Tripoli.

Bartolo said the Maltese government is seeking the support of the EU and neighbouring countries to help avert the second major crisis in just over a decade in Libya.

“Over the past days and weeks, I have been in touch with colleagues in Libya, talking to all sides, as well as the EU, US, UK, Italy, Egypt, Turkey, Morocco and France. We alerted them to the precarious situation in Libya, to prevent violence and military confrontation from breaking out,” he said.

“I have also called on all our Libyan friends to put the common good of the Libyan people first, and however difficult find ways of working together to give a much better future to Libya.”

There is no indication that the conflict could spark a full-scale war yet, but Bartolo said it could escalate into a very violent confrontation between militias in Tripoli.

Evarist Bartolo and Mark Micallef.

“A new conflict in Libya is bad for Libya, for Europe and for Africa as Libya connects the Sahel to the Mediterranean,” he said.

Libya currently has two governments run by two different prime ministers – Dbeibah and Bashagha. Dbeibah was appointed Prime Minister in February last year, following an election between the delegates of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum – a UN sponsored process. The forum was an initiative to install an interim government that enjoyed wide support, in the aftermath of the war on Tripoli between 2019 and 2020.

A new conflict in Libya is bad for Libya, for Europe and for Africa as Libya connects the Sahel to the Mediterranean– Evarist Bartolo

Dbeibah was appointed on condition he would lead the officially-recognised Government of National Unity from Tripoli and act as a caretaker prime minister, during which period he would lead the country toward democratic elections on December 24, at which point he would not run for re-election.

Bashagha, a former internal affairs minister, also contested the election in which Dbeibah was appointed Prime Minister, and though Dbeibah’s rise to power was peaceful, there were allegations that the election might have been rigged in his favour.

During the following months, it became increasingly clear that the country would not be ready for democratic elections in December.

Diplomatic sources explained the complexity of having two parallel governments, both believing that they are legitimate.

“If this ambiguity is not clarified and adequately addressed, the undermining of the stability and the deepening divisions in Libya remain a very real risk and the return to violence and conflict very likely.”

Mark Micallef, a researcher with the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, explained that the election itself could have sparked another violent conflict.

“The idea of an election in December was always pie in the sky. There was not enough enthusiasm and trust in how free and fair the election would be, and too many logistical hurdles. Moreover, many Libyans legitimately believed the country needed a constitutional reform before it could hold elections.”

When the election failed to take place in December, Bashagha joined forces with military commander Khalifa Haftar. Following this deal, the House of Representatives voted for Bashagha to form a new government, the Government of National Stability. On  March 1, parliament approved a cabinet of 41 members.

Since then, Bashagha been trying to seat himself in Tripoli, assume power and be recognised as the only leader of the country.

Bashagha reportedly came very close to entering Tripoli on March 4, and attempted again on Thursday, but was blocked primarily by national and international interlocutors who stepped in to avoid conflict.

Meanwhile, Dbeibah is calling on the country to go to the polls, saying he wants to run for re-election. Both leaders are significantly popular.

“A conflict is not inevitable. It is not without precedent that Libyan administrations transferred power peacefully,” Micallef explained.

The idea of an election in December was always pie in the sky– Mark Micallef

“Also, both leaders hail from Misrata, and both are supported by militias there, and while it is not impossible, it is improbable that Misratan militias will clash.

“However, a war is still possible, and if tensions do escalate in the coming days, we could be in for a long conflict.”

Micallef said a new violent conflict could threaten security in the Mediterranean but it is difficult to anticipate economic or migratory repercussions just yet, it all depends on the depth and length of such a conflict. However, he said there is one underrated factor – the Ukraine war.

“The impact of the invasion of Ukraine, and particularly the impact on food supply and the economy generally, is having and will continue to have a serious impact on the North African region. The last time we experienced a comparable food crisis was just before the so-called Arab Spring. The food crisis then resulted from calamitous weather conditions in major producing countries, including Russia, among others,” he said.

“The situation today in most of North Africa is arguably more unstable than it was back in 2010 from a political perspective, and certainly from an economic one.”