Provisional results of the Liberian presidential elections have begun rolling out, showing a divide among voters.

The two top candidates — President George Weah of the Coalition for Democratic Change and his rival Joseph Boakai of the Unity Party, are pulling votes from their strongholds — turning the race into a hotbed contest, easily leaving the other 18 presidential candidates far behind.

This has left millions of Liberians anxiously anticipating the official result of the highly contested October 10 polls as workers of the National Elections Commission work around the clock across the country to tally election results.

As the counting progresses across the country, results seen by the Daily Observer, whose authentication has been confirmed, reflect the diverse nature of Liberian politics, where regional affiliations and tribal politics play a significant role in shaping political outcomes.

Boakai, who is known for his strong support in the north-central region, especially his native Lofa County, is garnering a significant number of votes from that area. His messages, carved into a “Rescue Mission” mantra, seem to resonate with voters who hold a deep familiarity and attachment to the candidate’s political background and ideologies.

On the other hand, Weah, hailing from the Southeastern region, has experienced a similar surge in support from his stronghold, though that part of the country is sparsely populated.

Voters in this region are showing strong allegiance to the incumbent candidate, propelled by a sense of shared identity and the promise of policies that align closely with their hopes and aspirations.

While both Boakai and Weah enjoy substantial backing in their respective regions, they are also pulling well in vote-rich counties of Nimba and Bong as a result of their respective vice-running mates, whose popularities are deeply entrenched in their respective counties.

Both frontrunners also have an array of local support from prominent politicians and stakeholders who are in the position of making their cases — using tribal loyalty and connections.

As for Montserrado County, which shapes the nation’s political discourse,  the votes coming in are tightly contested between the two contenders, with the result flipping in each person’s favor.

Whoever wins Montserrado, which has a voting population of nearly one million, would stand a good chance of topping the first round of voting, but that depends on the margin.

As with other counties outside their strongholds, both Weah and Boakai are also performing well, with results showing that the race in open counties such as Margibi, Grand Bassa, and the Western region. These open counties would be key to either Weah or Boakai winning the October 10 polls.

If neither of the two frontrunners wins more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, a run-off will be held on November 7. The Elections Commission has 15 days after the day votes from the day the vote is cast to announce the election results. This means that by October 25, the final result of the election would be known, or sooner than that.

Alexander Cummings, a dark horse, is, however, still in the race, even though he faces a tough battle to catch up with the votes coming in for Weah and Boakai.

Ahead of the elections, a survey from Geopoll shows that Liberian voters rate the issues of leadership qualities, experience, policies, tribe, and party affiliation as the most decisive factors that would shape the election’s outcome.

The survey also finds that a significant number of the population lacks confidence in the Weah government’s capacity to tackle Liberia’s challenges, with 40.73% of respondents expressing very low trust, and an additional 25.12% indicating low trust levels. Only 15.37% of respondents expressed high to very high levels of trust in the Weah administration, underscoring a prevailing sentiment of skepticism among the Liberian electorate regarding the government’s ability to effectively address the nation’s pressing issues.

It is, however, unclear as to whether the survey finding will reflect in the election outcome, which analysts have billed as a referendum on the president’s six-year tenure, which has been marked by a mixed record of achievements.

However, if the survey finding comes to pass, Weah, who rode to victory with high hopes in 2017, marking a historic moment as Liberia’s first democratically elected leader since 1944, could become the first leader in recent memory to lose his reelection bid.

In 2017, Weah pledged to address poverty, create jobs, build infrastructure, and combat corruption. However, nearly six years later, he faces allegations of making limited progress in improving the lives of ordinary Liberians, with issues of corruption and mismanagement still prevalent.

The President, who after voting yesterday expressed confidence in winning reelection, has campaigned on his administration’s record, claiming that his development record during the first six years of his presidency outshone his predecessors.

The administration can also boast not only expanded electricity access but also reduced costs from 38 U.S. cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to an average of 15 cents per kWh, as well as ongoing numerous road construction projects across the country and free tuition for undergraduate students at all public universities, as one of his “many signature achievements.”

However, analysts say that despite some gains by the Weah administration, its failure to significantly fight corruption, which the President had denied, and reduce the growing cases of poverty, makes his reelection difficult but not impossible.

The Weah administration had mentioned the establishment of the Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission with autonomous powers to prosecute corrupt individuals, which is the first in the country’s history, as the President’s strong commitment to fight corruption, even though three of his close confidants who were sanctioned by the U.S for corruption have never been investigated despite public calls to do so.

Currently, the World Bank estimated that Liberia, which has vast mineral resources but widespread corruption, has more than half of its population of 5.2 million people living in poverty.

“I am very pleased that the process is secure, and everyone is casting their ballots,” Weah stated in remarks after voting yesterday.

“We hope that everyone votes for their choice, and whoever wins, we can live together. I have confidence in the Liberian people. They gave me a six-year mandate, and I have returned to ask for another six. I am here to vote and then go home so they can come and vote too,” he added.

The President’s confidence comes as Boakai, whom he defeated by a wide margin during the run-off election in  2017, then as an opposition candidate, has campaigned as an ordinary, honest man from a modest background who had to work hard to achieve success.

He says integrity has marked his long career, which has included criticism of the Weah administration’s links to several corruption scandals. Boakai, as part of his vision, which if widely accepted by the electorate would make him a president on his second attempt, has made agriculture a key campaign issue, vowing to increase domestic rice production and to set up three agricultural machinery hubs in the country.

He has also promised to pave the highways connecting country capitals and those connecting Liberia to other countries to improve cross-border trading, as well as establish a specialized court to fast-track cases of corruption and economic crimes and to support the private sector in developing programs.

In remarks after voting yesterday, Boakai briefly urged his supporters to remain peaceful before and after casting their votes.

“Let’s remain peaceful,” said Boakai, who served as Vice President to former President Sirleaf during the Unity Party’s 12 years at the helm.

As of now, both men, who believe they will secure a first-round victory, would have to wait for a few more days as results come in to know where their fates lie, respectively.