Italy fears a military solution to the Niger crisis could send migrants its way

Supporters of Nigers National Council of Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) protest outside the Niger and French airbase in Niamey on 30 August 2023 to demand the departure of the French army from Niger. (Photo by – / AFP)

Italy fears a migration “disaster” if there is military intervention in Niger.
EU foreign ministers are meeting in Spain, and Niger is high on the agenda.
Italy is hopeful about an Algerian proposal that would see a months-long transition, with a civilian in charge.
The EU is considering how to best sanction Niger’s now-ruling junta.
A military solution to the coup in Niger would be a “disaster” that could trigger a new migration crisis, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on Thursday.

The main West African bloc ECOWAS has been trying to negotiate with the coup leaders who seized power last month, but has warned it is ready to send troops into Niger to restore constitutional order if diplomatic efforts fail.

“(A) military solution (would) be a disaster,” Tajani told reporters as he arrived at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in the Spanish city of Toledo. “We need to work day by day for a diplomatic solution.”

The crisis in Niger is one of the main topics of the meeting, which will be addressed by Hassoumi Massoudou, the foreign minister of the ousted government, and Omar Touray, the president of the ECOWAS Commission.

Can an initiative by Algeria end crisis in Niger?
Asked if he feared military intervention could lead to a migration crisis, Tajani replied: “Yes, of course. To have a war in Niger (means) more people leaving this country, as in Sudan – there are more and more people leaving Sudan.”

Tajani spoke positively of an Algerian proposal this week to resolve the crisis, involving a six-month transition period led by a civilian.

EU sanctions

The European Union is moving ahead with the legal groundwork to impose sanctions on members of a junta that seized power in Niger last month, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Wednesday.

In deciding on sanctions, the EU will aim to mirror any measures taken by ECOWAS, Borrell said.

“We will follow, trying to implement the same kinds of sanctions that they have decided,” Borrell told reporters after a meeting of EU defence ministers in Toledo, Spain.

Borrell said he would propose establishing a legal framework for sanctions against those responsible for the coup when EU foreign ministers meet on Thursday, also in Toledo.

In declaring that the EU would be guided by ECOWAS decisions on sanctions, Borrell was sticking to a mantra that the EU has stressed since the July 26 coup that any solution to the crisis should be African-led.

However, when Borrell was asked whether the EU would provide financial support if ECOWAS decided on a military intervention in Niger, he said the bloc would consider any such request, rather than automatically approve it.

“We haven’t got any specific request,” he added.

Borrell said the coup had added fresh instability to the Sahel region of West and Central Africa, which he said was “already very fragile”.

Adding to Western concerns about Islamist militant groups in the region, Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has become a key player there in recent years.

Borrell said he expected Wagner to remain active in Africa despite the recent death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in a plane crash two months after he led an aborted mutiny against Russia’s military leadership.

“I’m sure they’ll quickly find a replacement for the late Wagner leader. They will remain operational in Africa because it is the armed wing of Russia,” he said.

Moscow “can’t send regular troops because it would be too egregious,” he said. “They (Wagner) will continue to serve Putin and do what they do, which is certainly not contributing to peace in the Sahel or defending rights and freedoms of the people of the Sahel.”

ECOWAS and the EU have already imposed some punitive measures as a result of the coup in Niger.

ECOWAS suspended commercial transactions with Niger, froze its state assets in the regional central bank, suspended assets of the state and state enterprises in commercial banks, and halted financial assistance with regional development banks.

The EU suspended its financial support and cooperation on security with Niger with immediate effect.

But a new sanctions framework would give the EU the legal basis to impose sanctions on specific individuals and organisations considered responsible for the coup.