Isis might have been bludgeoned in Syria and Iraq, where it first appeared. It’s not dead, however. Its spawn is continuing to kill and maim in Afghanistan.

And the Isis death cult is regrouping with frightening speed in Africa – with the Sahel is becoming a hot bed for the emergence of new and dangerous offshoots of Middle East terrorism, expert warn.

At a meeting of more than 80 countries attending the Global Coalition to Defeat Isis in Marrakech this week, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita warned that the Sahel – the semi-arid region below the Sahara that stretches from the Atlantic to the Red Sea – was now “home to the world’s fastest-growing and most deadly terrorist groups.”

Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 48 percent of global terrorism deaths in 2021, according to the latest the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) .

Deaths from terrorism in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger rose by a quarter last year to 2,493.

The index warns of “serious deteriorations in many countries in Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA), especially the Sahel”.

“Most troubling are the Isis affiliates that are currently active in the sub-Saharan continent because the numbers are extraordinary, and they have a lot of territory to play around with,” Doug Hoyt, the acting deputy US envoy to the coalition, said before the Marrakech meeting, that also hosted officials from the Arab League, NATO and Interpol.

The expansion of Isis and its affiliates there is the main reason for the surge of terrorist violence. Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA) is the biggest killer. But Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab are also highlighted by the GTI.

French forces managed to kill Adnan Abu Walid Al Sahrawi, the leader of the group known as Isis in the Greater Sahara in a drone attack in Mali last year.

But vast swathes of Mali still lie beyond government control because of the jihadist insurgency, which began in 2012 before spreading three years later to neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger.

And there are serious questions over the international community’s commitment to fighting terrorism on the African continent. Even as jihadists commit atrocities, there are signs that western forces are cutting ties with hotspots such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, and Chad.

France, the former colonial power, is withdrawing soldiers belonging to its Barkhane force from Mali following two coups in the country and rising tensions with the military junta.

On 2 May, the regime announced it was ending all defence accords with France, accusing it for “flagrant violations” of its national sovereignty.

France’s spat with Mali might seem like an overdue acknowledgment that the West’s flawed security strategy saw it work with the region’s brutal and coup-pronegovernments to fight the terrorists, even though these autocracies’ poor governance provided a breeding ground for terrorism in the first place.

The latest GTI stresses that while Isis is pulling the trigger in many of the attacks, economic and political disintegration is the driving the recruitment and spread of Isis and other terror groups.

“The underlying drivers are complex… including poor water utilisation, lack of food, malnutrition, strong population growth, and weak governments, with most of the terrorist activity occurring along borders where government control is weakest,” the authors say, adding that many criminal organisations are posing as Islamic insurgents, to capitalise on the chaos.

Underlining the instability of the region, there have been eight attempted coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Chad in the last eighteen months.

The UN counterterrorism chief Vladimir Voronkov, has called for a coordinated global response to turn back the tide for Africa.

But without the security provided by French troops, European advisers and UN peacekeepers in Mali, the French-led anti-terror coalition risks unraveling.

The G-5 Sahel Joint Force, a multinational military force from the five countries also shows signs of waning.

But nature abhors a vacuum. And as Western nations led by France start to detach themselves from the Sahel. Russia is seeking to gain influence there.

Paris has already accused Mali of inviting mercenaries from Kremlin-linked security firm Wagner.

And the Wagner mercenaries will almost certainly care less for civilian lives than the French forces or even Mali’s junta.

The Russian fighters have already been accused of atrocities and staging a mass grave in Mali using real bodies in an apparent attempt to frame and discredit French forces.

With such actions, Putin’s thugs won’t banish terrorism – but simply act as another recruiting agent for it.

“What we’re seeing Isis [is that] do is look at local grievances, start recruiting based on that, and suddenly, they’re (the recruits are) part of a greater caliphate,” Hoyt told Voice of America radio.

“They’ve got the people and the populations to draw on locally,” he added, warning that “the numbers are getting bigger.”