NEWS ANALYSIS

The tide seems to have turned on inflation — but, if recent history has taught us anything, it is to keep our guard up.

Lower petrol prices saw inflation ease in August to 7.6% year-on-year, from the July peak of 7.8%, which marked the steepest yearly increase since 2009. Next week’s consumer inflation print will probably continue the trend, bringing that number closer to 7%.

However, as Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago pointed out in a speech earlier this week, inflation easing hangs in the balance amid perpetually shifting global conditions.

“Although there has been some cooling in energy and food prices over the past couple of weeks, and slower economic growth which could potentially further temper price pressures,” Kganyago said, “the trajectory for inflation and its outlook remains highly uncertain.”

Over the past three years, South Africa’s economy has been hit by multiple, and often overlapping, shocks – some positive and some negative, Kganyago pointed out.