The entire country is expected to remain dry in February, with most areas having elevated temperatures, a new forecast shows.

This is the usual weather for February, but parts of northern Kenya and areas near Tanzania could have some rains, and lower than usual temperatures.

The forecast was given by the Dagoretti Corner-based Igad Climate Prediction & Applications Centre.

“Warmer than average conditions are expected in Kenya… cooler than usual conditions are expected over much of Tanzania, central and northern Uganda, northern Kenya,” Icpac said in a statement.

The forecast signals end of the scattered rains experienced in January.

According to the government, the below-average short rains season affected negatively most food crops, especially in the Coast, Eastern and parts of Central regions.

“But in the first week of January 2021, several parts of the Coast, Eastern and Central regions that highly depend on short rains received some showers that have improved conditions of some food crops, especially maize, sorghum, millet and root crops,” says the January 2021 food security report from the Ministry of Agriculture.

The report shows the bulk of the maize planted in 2020 has been harvested except for a few high altitude areas in Kisii, Mau Narok, Nakuru and Nyandarua.

“Harvesting of 2020 short rains maize is going on in Nyanza and parts of Western but the bulk of the harvesting is expected from March this year.”

Agriculture Principal Secretary Hamadi Boga last week confirmed the country is expecting 42 million bags of maize from this year’s harvest.

This will be a decline of two million bags from last year’s 44 million bags. PS Boga said even though the short rains were problematic at the beginning, they started picking up early this month. He said this is good for the short rains crops.

“Things are not so bad in some parts of Voi, Ukambani and parts of Kwale. There are some rains and the crops will be able to recover,” he said.

Boga said the current stability of national food security is due to the average to above-average 2020 long rains harvest that has been going on in most non-arid and semi-arid counties.

In the ASAL counties, the rangeland resources and livestock production conditions are still good, with livestock prices still above the long-term average.

Boga said harvesting of maize is going on in the major growing zones in the North Rift, parts of South Rift (Nakuru, Kericho, Nandi) and the Western region.

“These regions have been experiencing heavy rains, which may lead to higher post-harvest losses,” he said.

Timothy Njagi, a senior researcher from the Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development – Egerton University, said the rain was favourable for both the long and short seasons and the country’s maize production will be good.

“We are likely to get an estimated 38 million bags of maize for the long rains season and another four million bags for the short rains season. This will take us through to June,” he said.