AKINWUNMI KING
Presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, is no doubt a very strong and formidable challenger in the forthcoming Presidential election scheduled to hold on Saturday, February 18, 2023.
He is rated among the four top presidential candidates, which include: Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).
Among other contenders, Peter Obi seems to enjoy the support of a large part of the Nigerian elite and youths, especially those in the social media space.
Since his defection from the PDP to the LP over a claim that the former’s primary election was insufferably monetized and compromised, he has drawn massive sympathy and sparked political interest among the youths and other traditionally indifferent segments who now have been stirred into the rush to get their names into the voter register in order to participate in the 2023 elections.
Also, Obi’s followers are of the view that the governance they seek can only be achieved through his emergence as the next President of Nigeria. This development, according to some observers, should be seen as a victory lap by Nigerians.
Prior to leaving the PDP, he had gradually emerged as the darling of the Nigerian Online Republic, as he is easily the most followed and admired political figure among Nigerians on Twitter where he has a following of over 1,000,000. His Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok followership is growing by the moment. So far, his few open forum events are packed with active audiences who only seem to want more of his inspirational political messages.
The Peter Obi Attraction
A social commentator, Chidi Amuta, in one of his recent opinion articles titled: Peter Obi and the Last ‘Big Men’, described the former Anambra State governor as a cross between a power preacher and a rock star.
He said: “The Peter Obi phenomenon is a timely reversal of the old African Big Man narrative. He is determined to shorten the length of the presidential motorcade, curb wasteful governance, live modestly in simple circumstances, resist corruption, shun the filthy lucre, empty opulence and grandiosity of public office and avoid or curb the pomposity of state ceremony.
“Here is a leader who has undertaken to connect with the people as one of them. This is the regular Bayo, Emeka, Abu or Joe next door who wakes up early to pray for his nation, undertake his morning exercise, make his own coffee. Mr. Obi carries his own bag at the airport and holds up his own umbrella in the rain. Peter Obi’s increasing magnetism lies mostly in the fact that of all the political salesmen at our doorstep these days, he alone embodies the highpoints of this new anti-Big Man narrative.
“Peter Obi is communicating and connecting directly with ordinary Nigerians on the streets and in the markets. His catchment is a new strategic demographics of youth and the internet generation, the urban unemployed who see their hopeless situation because of the years of wasteful governance by Big Men politicians. But the traditional party membership and configuration still gives an advantage to the rural grassroots poor who remain in the vice grip of the politics and parties of Big Men.”
Amuta further stated that in Nigeria’s emerging democratic culture, Obi is the galvanisation of the convergence of new realities and new technologies. “Mr. Obi is merely the embodiment of a new spirit and the carrier of a generational burden,” he said.
He added: “An entirely new generation and vast population of Nigerians feel challenged to reject decades of bad politics and worsening social and economic conditions. Peter Obi is merely the current embodiment of a spirit that was hinted at by the spontaneous outburst of the ENDSARS protests. He may be the first political expression of the new spirit of protest against bad government and ugly social and economic conditions.”
However, there are those who believe that Obi doesn’t really have what it takes to challenge the system for him to emerge the next president.
Femi Mimiko, a Professor of Political Science at the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, and a member of the National Institute (MNI), said: “Obi doesn’t come across as tough enough to confront all of the evil forces, and human and institutional principalities that have held Nigeria down for so long.
“He doesn’t come with a touch of ‘rascality’ that is needful for sorting out this ‘congregation of evil’ that is Nigeria’s rapacious and unconscionable political class. While Obi is quite adept as highlighting the challenges of bad governance that Nigeria epitomises, he is not really quite profound in terms of the practicalities of addressing the same. Recounting the difficulties of the country in such an eloquent manner as Obi does it, is good to the ears. The task, however, is what, in precise terms, you need to deliver a qualitative alternative. Obi can still do much better on this.
“I have this uncomfortable feeling that an Obi presidency could mean greater tension over Lagos, vis-a-vis the thinly veiled ownership claims – or in the least, a sense of entitlement – of his own ethnic nation, on the former federal capital. It would require all the dexterity of an Obi presidency in ensuring this lingering tension does not snowball into a major inter-ethnic inferno. If and when Obi and his handlers are able to persuasively address these issues, so many stakeholders, who are genuinely concerned about the direction in which Nigeria seems again to be headed, may not hesitate to move into his corner.
“Talks about a political structure, or shortage thereof, which the anti-Obi forces are drumming up, are valid, but not insurmountable. As a political scientist, I am conversant enough with how a momentum similar to the one that is building up behind Peter Obi today propelled hitherto unknown political qualities into high office.
“A recent example was Tunisia in 1999, where such a momentum swept Kais Saied, a professor, into the presidential palace. The fundamental condition for this type of seismic movement is mass anger and public trust deficit, which are aplenty in Nigeria today.
“The Nigerian state is in the throes of what elsewhere I characterised as a ‘creeping failure,’ the evidence of which is out there for any patriotic mind to track. So, let no one underestimate the unfolding Obi phenomenon. Putting him away with a wave of the hand isn’t in any way scientific.”
PDP Senatorial candidate for Delta North, Ned Nwoko, last week, declared that Peter Obi cannot win the 2023 presidency, advising the former Anambra governor to return to the PDP and pick a ministerial appointment.
The former House of Representatives member in an exclusive interview with the BBC explained that Obi’s current party lacks the structure to produce the presidency despite his seemingly large support base.
While eulogizing Obi, he described him as very ‘frugal and conservative’ in his dealings while he was governor.
He said: “Peter Obi is a good man, I’ve known him for many years. When I did my Paris Club refund for Anambra State, he impressed me. He impressed me because he will actually pick the phone to arrange my flight. He will pick his phone to book my hotel. And he was the governor.
“He actually came to London and didn’t come like other governors that came to see me, to give me instructions. He came alone, carrying his bag. Peter Obi is a capitalist, don’t get me wrong. He is a big time player in the business world, but he is very frugal, he is very conservative, the way he handles things.
“We will like him back in the PDP. I would want to be one of those that will encourage him to come back to PDP. We can have him. He will do very well as Minister of the Economy. He will help us run the economy. In eight years, the Nigerian economy will start to turn round. He would do that, I know. We will have a very capable hand, he will do that.
“I mean, he is making an impact now, no doubt, but I cannot imagine the swell of support to translate to victory for the Labour Party. Labour Party doesn’t have the structure. The kind of structure we are talking about is not the support base, it is included though. But there are unions, the labour unions, students, the market women, and all that.”
Speaking in the same vein, former Niger State governor, Babangida Aliyu, said the Labour Party presidential candidate can’t rule Nigeria in 2023. Aliyu said 2023 is too early for Obi to become president, hence he should wait for either 2027 or 2031.
Featuring on Channels Television’s Political Paradigm, the former governor described Obi as an excellent person, just as he explained that Obi would have been the running mate of Atiku Abubakar if he had remained with the PDP.
He said: “Peter Obi is my good friend and a former member of my former Governors’ Forum. A very excellent person. His candidature, in terms of the Presidency – I think he will make some name now. But he may be able to make it only in 2027, 2031. But 2023? Too early.
“Even though the young people might go for him, the name is not dropping everywhere else. I doubt if Nigerians are ready for him now as a presidential candidate. I would have loved him as a vice president. Many of us were rooting for him to be running mate to Atiku again.”
To many, Obi has become a media sensation, as unemployment, inflation, insecurity and poverty indexes have skyrocketed under the current government. While the government blames global economic dynamics for these negative developments, the younger generation and youths don’t want to listen, they see Peter Obi as a platform for venting their anger on the government and to “correct” the current abysmal performance of the current government.
The Odds Against Peter Obi
In Nigeria, it is believed that elections are not won on social media but in polling units. Speaking on this, a public affairs analyst, Enenche Enenche, said: “The current vice-president has one of the best, if not the best media presence, but lost his primary election. The media sensation hyping Peter Obi is good. If the election is to take place tomorrow he is likely to pull a big surprise, but as it is, the elections are months away and, in politics, One Day is a long time for things to spin out of control.
“I expected Peter Obi to have merged forces with Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) to have a stronger north base support, but going to Labour Party is likely to affect the political interests of his zone.
“He is likely to divide Atiku’s South-East base, further giving the ruling APC an upper hand. APC is sure of the South-West, with Obi dividing Atiku’s stronghold in his South-East. At the end of the day, he may plunge his people into another four years in opposition.
“Peter Obi has been trending on social media, but for the men and women who are not on social media, who is speaking to them about Obi?
“I have travelled to 32 out of 36 states in Nigeria, and I have interacted with many Nigerians in all my many encounters. I can authoritatively tell you that the South-West and South-South will not vote for Obi, relying on the Christian votes in the North is not a reliable move.
“In Northern Nigeria, only Benue, then Plateau and Taraba are fully in control of Christians, but in these states, voting is along tribal lines; tribes vote in a pattern to counter each other… Like in Benue, Idomas and Tivs are always voting in opposite directions, the same with Igbira and Igalas in Kogi, or Biroms and the remaining ethnic groups in Plateau.
“In the states of the North, even where you have sizeable numbers of Christians like Nasarawa, Gombe, Bauchi, Borno, and Adamawa, the Muslims are the ones in control of the social-economic life wires of these days. In Nasarawa State, for example, the only place you find Muslims are in Keffi, the state capital of Lafia, and partially in Nasarawa Local Government, but in that state, Muslims control the political structure.
“While you are shouting ‘Obi-dient’ on social media, until I see a formidable alliance of Peter Obi in the North, I will not take his social media waves seriously.
“APC has South-West and will struggle South-South with Atiku. Where will Peter Obi’s vote come from?”
Will Obi, Kwankwaso Join Forces?
There have been several calls on Peter Obi to join forces with Kwankwaso in order to split the votes of both Atiku and Tinubu in the North but some close to the LP candidates have continued to claim that he (Obi) is not planning to be running mate to anyone.
Recently, Kwankwaso, in an interview with the BBC Hausa, disclosed that he is discussing with Obi on the possibility of contesting for the presidency on the same ticket in 2023.
According to him, “Yes, we are discussing with Peter Obi, or I will rather say a committee is working to see all that is necessary on teaming up with him, and our friends and relations have been coming to talk to us over the issue.”
The former Governor of Kano State explained that their teaming up is important, looking at the fact that the APC and PDP did not pick their Vice Presidential candidates from the Igbo tribe.
Speaking in the same tone, spokesperson of the National Consultative Forum (NCF), Yinusa Tanko, disclosed that there is an ongoing plan to merge the interests of the Labour Party’s presidential candidate and that of his counterpart in the NNPP.
Tanko, who made the disclosure in an interview on Arise TV, opined that the arrangement will help strengthen the national spread of both candidates and position them to defeat the ruling APC.
Asked to confirm if there were plans to bring together Peter Obi and Kwankwaso, Tanko noted that both parties are working seriously towards a merger.
According to Tanko, merging the two parties was an idea they had already seen on ground, and they felt that Obi, who is very much grounded in the Southern part of the country, needs to work together with other people who are much grounded in the Northern part of Nigeria.
The campaigns have not yet started and the days ahead promise to be challenging as Peter Obi confronts the realities of party politics in Nigeria. The tenacity of his supporters and the responses of others in the presidential race will count for much, and there is no way to know the likely outcome until much later.
