A new political group, primarily comprised of northern elements allegedly sidelined within the All Progressives Congress (APC), is poised to emerge as the main opposition to President Bola Tinubu’s administration in 2025.

This prediction is outlined in a recent SBM Intelligence report titled “The Year Ahead – Caught in Currents”, released on December 20, 2024.

The report forecasts a shifting political landscape in Nigeria, with realignments that could redefine opposition politics.

According to SBM Intelligence, the group will capitalize on growing discontent in northern Nigeria and leverage it to challenge the ruling party’s dominance in the region.

There appears to be growing discontent in the northern part of the country with some prominent voices from the region rising louder against the administration in recent months.

“A new political group will emerge as the main opposition to the Tinubu Administration. It will be clustered around the northern elements that are out of favour in the APC,” the report read.

Controversial Tax Reform Bill as Trigger  

During the recent deliberations on President Bola Tinubu’s proposed tax reform bill, a heated national debate emerged, particularly driven by significant opposition from influential northern leaders.

• These critics fear the reforms could exacerbate regional inequalities and intensify existing economic challenges in the North.
• Prominent voices, including Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum and former Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal, have raised concerns about the bill’s potential socioeconomic impact.
• They argue that northern Nigeria, already grappling with economic hardships, high poverty levels, and persistent security challenges, may face disproportionate burdens under the new tax regime.
• Under mounting pressure from northern governors and 73 northern lawmakers, the House of Representatives has chosen to indefinitely suspend debates on the contentious bill.

“The biggest fiscal reform that is likely to commence implementation in 2025 is the tax reform,” noted the SBM Intelligence report. Despite fierce political resistance from the North, the report anticipates that President Tinubu will push through and ensure the reforms are enacted.

Central to the opposition is the belief that the proposed reforms would disproportionately impact northern states, further widening the economic divide between Nigeria’s wealthier southern region and its economically fragile northern counterpart.

Ribadu to eclipse Shettima as Tinubu’s Northern loyalists fight back 

With President Bola Tinubu losing the support of key northern politicians, including former Senate Chief Whip Ali Ndume, tensions within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are becoming increasingly apparent.

• Ndume, who was recently removed from his position over alleged anti-party comments, has been replaced by Senator Tahir Monguno of Borno North. This reshuffle signals a consolidation of loyalty within the party as the President’s allies push back against dissent.

In August, the Shettima-led National Economic Council (NEC) has advised President Tinubu to withdraw forthwith the National Tax Reform Bills before the National Assembly to allow for “sufficient alignment between and amongst the stakeholders for the proposed reforms.” 

• Amid the political turbulence, staunch defenders of President Tinubu, such as National Security Adviser Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, Minister of State for Defence and former Zamfara State Governor Bello Matawalle, and ex-Speaker of the House of Representatives Yakubu Dogara, have publicly rallied in his support. These individuals have sought to counter criticisms and reinforce the President’s agenda.
• Notably, Ribadu’s influence is projected to rise significantly in 2025, potentially overshadowing Vice President Kashim Shettima as the administration’s de facto second-in-command, according to the SBM Intelligence report. Ribadu’s growing prominence will play a key role in shaping the political and security dynamics of the Tinubu government.

“Nuhu Ribadu, the National Security Adviser, will become more prominent in 2025 and will begin to eclipse VP Kassim Shettima as the de facto second-in-command in the government,” the report read.

What you should know 

SBM Intelligence is an Africa-focused market intelligence, security analysis, and strategic consulting firm that exists to provide analysis of West Africa’s socio-political and economic situation through such means as may prove to be expedient.

President Tinubu polled a total of 8,794,726 votes with 5,335,114 from northern states during the 2023 presidential election.