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US President Donald Trump outperforming 2020 election predictions in key states

US President Donald Trump outperforming 2020 election predictions in key states

Voters in the Republican presidential primary enter and leave a polling place in Boca Raton, Florida.
Florida is still too close to call as votes get counted in the 2020 US presidential election.(Reuters: Joe Skipper)

Counting in several of America’s key battleground states — including Florida, Ohio, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Texas, Wisconsin and North Carolina — is still too close to call as the world awaits the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said Democratic challenger Joe Biden would need to flip some of these key states in order to defeat Donald Trump.

“That is where the election will be decided. Those numbers, particularly for Joe Biden, are very high. For him to get to 270 [electoral college votes], he has to win some of the swing states [and] none of them have been called yet,” Green said.

“Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, New Hampshire and Florida, all the states we need to see, they are not in yet.”

ABC Insiders host David Speers said none of the US states had been “flipped” from the 2016 result.

“We have been focused on Florida, which Trump is ahead in, just. [There’s] still a way to go there. Ohio and North Carolina, as we have been saying, Biden has been holding a lead there but it is narrowing now,” he said.

“He needs to flip states to win them and we’re yet to see him do that.”

Former policy director for Republican Mitt Romney in his 2012 race, Lanhee Chen, told Speers that Mr Trump was “overperforming”.

“In Florida, the outcome there appears to be President Trump holding onto that state,” Mr Chen said.

“Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, those three states appear to hold the key.

“There was some conversation about Georgia, [but] I just don’t see that developing into nearly as competitive of a state as I expected.

“I think the President is overperforming and making this an interesting contest.”

While Mr Biden was outperforming 2016 Democrats nominee Hillary Clinton in Ohio and North Carolina, Mr Chen said Mr Trump “has room to go to close the gap”.

“North Carolina will remain close [and] if I had to guess right now, Trump [will] eke out a narrow victory.

“[Ohio] is too early to call. The one thing that gives the Biden campaign comfort is that there are a lot of votes from urban areas that haven’t come in yet.

“Those are traditionally areas [which are] very strong for Democrats. The Biden campaign has to feel good about Ohio right now.”

Mr Chen said there was a “strong turnout for both sides” and that supporters of both Mr Trump and Mr Biden had been “energised”.

Democratic strategist Hillary Rosen agreed Mr Trump was performing better than expected.

 

“The Biden campaign has been very clear all along, and that is to reclaim those blue states that Democrats have traditionally won — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,” she said.

“I still think they are on track to win those tonight and more importantly, they believe they are.”

Due to a surge in mail-in voting amid the coronavirus pandemic — as well as the states’ varying rules for when ballots can be counted — the results may not be known on election day.

Hundreds of people wait in line for early voting on Monday, Oct. 12, 2020, in Marietta, Georgia
Voters in Georgia lined up for hours to cast early votes.(AP: Ron Harris)

Here’s a look at the key states in the 2020 US presidential election:

GEORGIA

Trump leading on 55.1 per cent.

Electoral votes: 16

Some polls still open.

FLORIDA

Trump leading on 51.3 per cent.

Electoral votes: 29

Polls closed.

NORTH CAROLINA

Trump leading on 49.8 per cent.

Electoral votes: 15

Polls closed.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Biden leading on 53.7 per cent.

Electoral votes: 4

Polls closed.

OHIO

Trump leading on 52.4 per cent.

Electoral votes: 18

Polls closed.

MICHIGAN

Trump leading on 55.4 per cent.

Electoral votes: 16

Some polls still open.

PENNSYLVANIA

Trump leading on 52.8 per cent.

Electoral votes: 20

Polls closed.

TEXAS

Trump leading on 51.1 per cent.

Electoral votes: 38

Some polls still open.

WISCONSIN

Trump leading on 50.9 per cent.

Electoral votes: 10

Polls still open.

MINNESOTA

Biden leading on 60.3 per cent.

Electoral votes: 10

Polls still open.

An election official sorts absentee and early voting ballots
Minnesota will account for 10 electoral college votes.(AP: Elise Amendola)

ARIZONA

Biden leading on 53.7 per cent.

Electoral votes: 11

Polls still open.

NEVADA

Too early to call — no data available.

Electoral votes: 6

Polls still open.

IOWA

Biden leading on 59.5 per cent.

Electoral votes: 6

Polls still open.

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