Africa fought a prolonged battle for independence from European colonial masters in the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s before re-gaining freedom en masse in the early 1960s. The immediate task for all of them soon afterwards was nation-building. The new states had become nominally independent but were far from being viable nations. In the normal trajectory of human evolution, people form themselves into nations first, before advancing towards statehood. African states had achieved statehood first, before trying to forge and remould themselves into nations subsequently. Why? Because the modern African states had been delineated by the European powers in an arbitrary partition that suited their colonial purposes at the infamous “Berlin Conference” in 1885. In the case of West Africa, the task of nation-building was rendered even more complex due to the fact that the region was set up as ‘Anglophone’ and ‘Francophone’ neo-colonial outposts for Western economic interest. The challenge for the post-independent leaders in the region was how to cut loose from this fait accompli without upsetting the social fabrics of their society too much, too quickly and too violently. How do citizens in the region stop seeing themselves as ‘Anglophone’ and ‘Francophone’ and start emphasising their African ‘oneness’? Historically and culturally, the inhabitants of the region were indigenous Africans who were forced into the French and English-speaking worlds of imperial France and Britain respectively. Consequently, the post-independent period of the 1960s and 1970s was indeed a turbulent one for the region. A situation that called for an act of statesmanship from someone, somewhere.

Rolling back the frontiers of the colonial states and simply going back to live in communes and in the African neighbourhoods was not a realistic option. Much as they were incongruous with the sensibilities of indigenous Africans, the new states were now fully grounded. Better allow the old bird to hatch a new one, capable of flying the region to greater heights and a new destination. In other words, the old (colonial) states would be kept as they were, but the inhabitants would be reborn into a new life with a strong regional identity and a sense of pride in themselves as West Africans. In practical terms, this meant economic integration, to be followed by political integration. And, so it was that the 16 states in the region came together to launch the Economic Community of West African States in 1975 to “promote economic cooperation among member states in order to raise living standards and promote economic development.” It was also around the same time that the European Economic Community was heavily involved in cementing what was later to become the European Union. Originally created by the Treaty of Rome in 1957 to promote the free flow of trade among its members, it subsequently developed along the line of full economic integration and dissolved into the EU in 1993. Its main advantage was that, unlike the ECOWAS, it had no colonial overlords to contend with. The main catalyst for a move towards economic “cooperation” and, subsequently, integration, in West Africa was, of course, Nigeria. The 1973 oil boom engineered by the Arab-Israeli conflict allowed Nigeria to accumulate huge foreign currency reserves as well as increased tradeable prominence on the international stage.

For Nigeria, therefore, it was a case of what the Europeans could do for themselves, West Africans could do even better. As it turned out, however, it was easier said than done. For starters, the colonial ties that have divided the region into spheres of influence for the British and the French have proved a lot deeper, and more enduring, than previously thought. West Africa was and still is an important market for European consumer goods. This has proven difficult to shift over the years, especially given that the states in the region are essentially primary producers, with little or no manufacturing capacity. How do you integrate economies that are basically producing similar raw materials for European consumption? And relying on Europe for imports of manufactured goods? The answer is full economic integration requiring the pooling of sovereignty. That is precisely what has constituted the stumbling block for any advance towards self-sufficiency in the region. There is a yawning gap between the economic ambition of the West African leaders and the realisation of what would be required to achieve the objective namely; political union. Unlike the European Union, West Africa has the continuing burden of artificial borders, which continue to form a barrier towards the creation of a regional identity that would be neither English nor French.

Two weeks ago, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, a private sector-led think-tank, established in 1996 to share knowledge and ideas on furthering economic development across the region, published a damning report which highlighted the reason why the ECOWAS bird never flew. Eleven of the states in the region, including Nigeria, are drowning in (crippling and unpayable) debts. The report finds that “a financial catastrophe occasioned by a debt crisis in one country may spread throughout the region. The financial woes in Nigeria, in particular, portends a serious threat to other nations in the region.” This is not really news. This has been a feature of life for people in the region since independence. What makes it critical now is that the debt service to revenue ratio for countries in the region is now 100 per cent—or more—for many of them. Nigeria stands at 97 per cent as of 2021. In plain English, it means the West African economies are in a downward spiral, heading for the abyss unless quickly pulled back through what political leaders in Nigeria now call “debt cancellation” or “debt forgiveness.” According to the International Monetary Fund, “The average Debt to GDP ratio in West Africa is expected to rise to 67.2 per cent in 2022 from 56.4 per cent in 2019”.

In plain language, that means West Africa PLC is effectively bankrupt. If 67.2 per cent of your resources are already on a mortgage to your creditors, what remains for you to live on? What is more, we are talking of a densely populated region of over 400 million, the second-largest after East Africa at 445 million. Southern Africa has the most sophisticated economy in sub-Saharan Africa and the least population; 67 million. West Africa’s annual GDP amounts to $700 billion out of which Nigeria’s share is $500 billion, which is over 70 per cent of the total. Any analysis of foreign, security and defence policies in the region has to be conducted in the context of this economic reality. The lofty aim of economic cooperation has not been achieved, let alone integration. Yet, this is a prerequisite for any hope for the people in the region. It is not clear how the recently launched Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement would alter the above narrative. Many people fear it might even make it worse initially. Free continental trading between countries heavily dependent on the imports of manufactured goods from external sources is an open invitation for dumping. Nigeria had to order the closure of its land borders with its neighbours in August 2019, to stem the tide of smuggling and reluctantly re-opened the borders in December 2020. So much for economic cooperation, one would say. But it was a necessary evil if looked at objectively. Has it resolved the problem? Sadly not. Will the ECOWAS bird eventually fly? The answer has to be yes, for the incurable optimist. Even pigs can fly.