Coal mining in Eastern Europe will decline significantly over the next decade as the pace of the green transition accelerates. However, this does not apply to Poland, where the production of both steam coal and coking coal is expected to increase within a decade. These are the conclusions of the report by the Fitch Solutions rating agency.

The decline in coal production is due to the shift in energy generation sources and the growing difficulties in financing fossil fuel projects. EU environmental policy will also be a major factor in this decline.

“The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) has helped reduce regional coal consumption, with the block’s carbon price for power plants rising from around €6 per metric tonne in 2016 to over €85 per tonne in 2021,” Fitch Solutions stated.

In addition, there will be problems with obtaining financing for new coal mining operations, which have become even more frequent since the outbreak of the pandemic.

The agency’s report shows that by 2030 compared to 2020 in Romania, the decrease in thermal coal extraction will reach 24 percent. The Czech Republic will record a decline of 10.5 percent, and Bulgaria – of 9.1 percent. Poland is expected to be an exception to this trend and to record a steady increase in production over the decade. According to Fitch Solutions, the production of steam coal in Poland will increase by 22.3 percent to 129 million tonnes per year by 2030, while coking coal production will increase by 53 percent up to 17.2 million tonnes per year by 2030.