Court ruling on ADC leadership forces PIG to review 2027 presidential election projection
The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng says it will review its November projection for the 2027 presidential election after a Federal High Court ruling nullified the leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), led by former Senate President David Mark.
The group said the ruling, which also invalidated decisions by the Mark-led leadership, could affect  political calculations around former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who emerged as the party’s presidential candidate at its May 25 primary.
Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court, Abuja, reportedly nullified the Mark-led interim National Working Committee (NWC) and declared its actions, including the presidential primary, invalid.
In a statement issued in Lagos on Friday and signed by its Chairman, Lai Omotola, PIG said the development had made it necessary to adjust its November electoral projection, particularly its assessment of Atiku’s position in the race.
The group’s November projection, released on Thursday in Lagos, had indicated a closely contested race among the three leading contenders: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and Atiku.
Tinubu was projected to lead by a narrow margin, with Obi in second place and Atiku third, with relatively close margins separating the three contenders.
However, PIG said the court ruling had introduced a new dimension into the electoral calculations, particularly in the North, where Atiku has a significant political base.
It said that if the judgment was upheld on appeal and Atiku was eventually excluded from the ballot, Tinubu could record a wider margin of victory, particularly in northern states.
According to the group, some northern voters might prefer Tinubu to complete another four-year term rather than an eight-year presidency under Obi.
The group, however, presented the assessment as conditional on the court ruling surviving the appeal process.
The ADC and Atiku have rejected the judgment and said they plan to challenge it in court. Atiku has also maintained that his presidential campaign would continue despite the ruling. Premium Times
PIG said its December edition would provide a comprehensive assessment of the electoral implications of the court decision, taking into account the outcome of the ADC’s appeal and other emerging political developments.
The group added that the December projection would reflect the latest developments in the contest for the 2027
