Good Wednesday morning.

DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING: The ONS’ revised quarterly estimate of the U.K.’s GDP is out this morning. According to the release: “There is little change to our earlier estimate of UK gross domestic product (GDP) for 2020 as whole, which is now estimated to have contracted by 9.8%, slightly revised from the first estimate of a 9.9% decline; there are, though, revisions to the quarterly path through the year.” Read the full release here.

MODEL SOCIETY: The U.K. is a “beacon to the rest of Europe and the world” when it comes to tackling racial inequality and forging a successful multi-ethnic society — that’s according to Boris Johnson’s Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities, whose landmark report is published this morning. Their review finds that while “overt and outright racism persists” in modern-day Britain, it is not institutionally racist and in fact “should be regarded as a model for other white-majority countries.” The prime minister established the commission in the wake of the Black Lives Matter movement last summer, and its optimistic findings will provoke much controversy and debate today. It also rolls the pitch for a new government crackdown on social media companies, which come in for the heaviest criticism in the report for failing to deal with racism online.

WAR ON WOKE GOES NUCLEAR: The trail for this morning’s 264-page review promises it will be “a major shift in the race debate” that “challenges the view that Britain has failed to make progress in tackling racial inequality.” The commission will criticize what it calls “the well-meaning ‘idealism’ of many young people who claim the country is still institutionally racist,” concluding their views are “not borne out by the evidence.”

Who’s on the commission? It was chaired by educationalist Tony Sewell, who worked with Johnson at City Hall … and its panel was made up of educator and TV presenter Maggie Aderin-Pocock … Chair of the Youth Justice Board for England and Wales Keith Fraser… former BBC journalist Samir Shah … Judicial Appointments Commission Chair Ajay Kakkar … economist Dambisa Moyo … academies boss Martyn Oliver … school governor Naureen Khalid … businessman Aftab Chughtai … and commentator Mercy Muroki.

And on the government side: The commission was set up by No. 10 policy chief Munira Mirza … and the sponsoring minister was Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch.

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Timings: The full report will be published on the government’s website here at 11.30 a.m. Playbook will take you through the top lines pre-briefed this morning …

SCHOOLS SUCCESS: Many of those on the commission are education-focused and indeed the report’s headline finding is about Britain’s schools system. It says children from almost every ethnic minority outperform white British children in compulsory education, with “minority aspiration driving high educational achievement for children from certain ethnic communities” — which it argues in turn “is creating fairer and more diverse workplace.” The commission concludes: “Education is the single most emphatic success story of the British ethnic minority experience.”

Apart from: The report claims there is a “growing divergence in educational achievement between Black Africans and Black Caribbeans,” and that Black Caribbean children were the only ethnic group that performed worse than white British pupils in their GCSEs in 2019. Indian and Bangladeshi children were also above the white British average.

The data: The percentage of those from a Black Caribbean background achieving GCSE A*-C in both English and Maths is 50.3 percent. For white British pupils, it is 61.8 percent. For Black African pupils, it is 62.7 percent.

PAY GAP CLOSING: When it comes to the world of work, the commission says “there remain disparities at the top of public and private sectors” but insists “it is an improving picture.” The report finds the pay gap between all ethnic minorities and the white majority population has shrunk to 2.3 percent. It reckons that in 2019, among under-30s, there was “no significant pay gap” for any ethnic minority group and the white majority in employment. It concludes that the success of minorities in the education system and the British economy should be the “model” for other countries in Europe and the western world.

Barriers to success: So what does the commission blame for the inequalities that it says do still exist in Britain? It argues that racism is becoming “less important” as a factor in explaining disparities: “We found that most of the disparities we examined, which some attribute to racial discrimination, often do not have their origins in racism.” Instead, it reckons some communities are “haunted” by “historic cases” of racism, creating a “deep mistrust” in the system that could prove a barrier to successful outcomes. The report concludes: “Both the reality and the perception of unfairness matter.”

RECOMMENDATIONS: The commission will release 24 recommendations to the government this morning, several of which were announced overnight. They are: ending the use of the BAME (Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic) acronym, which it says is of “limited value” due to the differences between ethnic groups … calling on organizations to “move away from funding unconscious bias training” … phasing in extended school days, starting with disadvantaged areas, after evidence suggested homeschooling during the pandemic means some children are being left behind.

Notably … the commission says its recommendations should not actually be focused on minorities, because many white British people have worse outcomes than people in other ethnic groups. The report states that government policy should “wherever possible, be designed to remove obstacles for everyone, rather than specific groups.”

ONLINE CRACKDOWN: The Sun’s Harry Cole has an original line from the report on the coming storm for social media firms. Cole says the review will call for tougher penalties on tech companies over racist content, warning: “Abuse experienced online, in other words through social media sites such as Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram, also has a significant impact on victims … Failing to comply should lead to substantial penalties — and public naming and shaming for their seeming intransigence to the pain racism causes its victims.” The Sun splashes on an interview with former Arsenal footballer Thierry Henry on how he’s quit social media due to racist abuse.

What government outriders are saying: Racial equality campaigner and Conservative activist Duwayne Brooks backs the report in Times Red Box this morning, writing: “It tells truths that some don’t want to hear. Truths like racism still exists in the U.K., but disparities don’t always arise because of it. Truths like geography and socioeconomic factors are far more likely to drive unequal outcomes. And truths like it is family breakdown that’s at the heart of some of the worst statistics in education and crime — the ones that most damage our children’s future prospects or, tragically, see them gone too soon.”

Prepare for more culture wars: Those involved in the report told Playbook last night that they hoped that the data published today would take some of the heat out of the debate on race. But you can’t help but feel Twitter and much of Westminster will fall back into one of two entrenched positions in response to today’s publication.

Over to … Labour leader Keir Starmer for his reaction. You get the impression that some Tory culture war footsoldiers reckon they’ve laid a trap and want the opposition to go hard in their criticism of today’s report. Equally, back the report and Starmer will get another bucketload from the Labour left. Give a nuanced response and he’ll be accused of sitting on the fence again. Who’d be a leader of the opposition?

One disparity: On Tuesday, the government press released a statement from the comedian Lenny Henry in which he said: “We know change needs to happen and that it’s hard to trust some institutions and authorities.” On Wednesday, the government is saying there is no evidence of institutional racism in Britain and that any mistrust is due to “historic cases.” Which is it?

Whatever happened to those burning injustices? Playbook can’t help but flashback to Theresa May’s speech when she became PM, in which she said the government must “fight against burning injustices” such as that “if you’re Black, you’re treated more harshly by the criminal justice system than if you’re white.” All eyes on the report’s release later this morning to see what recommendations it may or may not make on disparities in the criminal justice system.

COVID UPDATE

DON’T BLOW IT: Health Secretary Matt Hancock tweeted an alternative slogan for the Downing Street briefing room podium last night: “Let’s enjoy the sun but let’s do it safely. We have come so far, don’t blow it now.” Several papers run pictures of people sunbathing on their front pages today. Don’t worry, it’s forecast to snow next week.

WHO are you? The U.K., U.S., Australia and Canada have criticized a World Health Organization report into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic for delays in its investigation, suggesting China had “withheld access to complete, original data and samples.” WHO head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus admitted the investigation was “not extensive enough,” that investigators had struggled with access during their visit to Wuhan, and that more examination was needed to rule out a theory that the virus originated in a lab. The Guardian has the story. A U.K. health source tells Playbook: “Matt thinks it is crucial that China is fully transparent and works with the WHO on its investigation into the origins of COVID-19.”

OXFORD BAD, WE WANT VLAD: France and Germany are negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply the Sputnik vaccine to the EU, as Germany once again flip-flopped on the use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab. The German government yesterday suspended use of the AZ jab for under-60s after more apparent concerns over blood clots.

PUTIN YOUR ARM: German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron held a video call with Putin yesterday where the possibility of “cooperation” on the Sputnik vaccine was discussed. The Telegraph splashes the story.

Boom boom: Boris Johnson decided against a Barnard Castle gag at his press conference as he announced Britain would produce the Novavax jab in the North East on Monday. But the PM came up with one for his call with business leaders last night. The Sun’s Harry Cole hears he told them: “What Dom was actually doing was scouting out the complex.”